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Feb 12, 2008

More disturbing climate news

Once again, the IPCC seems to be wrong, unfortunately wrong in the wrong direction. The following article is from Climate Progress.

Greenland Study: Sea level rise could be double IPCC projections

Last year, Nature Geoscience and Science published major articles suggesting that the consensus projection for sea level rise this century was far too low — and could be as high as five feet. Now the Journal of Glaciology joins in with a remarkable analysis, “Intermittent thinning of Jakobshavn Isbræ, West Greenland, since the Little Ice Age.”

The lead author, Beata Csatho from the University of Buffalo explains implications of this work for the traditionally very simplified ice sheet models, such as those used by United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to make projections of sea level rise:
“Ice sheet models usually don’t include all the complexity of ice dynamics that can happen in nature. This research will give ice sheet modelers more precise, more detailed data.

“If current climate models from the IPCC included data from ice dynamics in Greenland, the sea level rise estimated during this century could be twice as high as what they are currently projecting.“
The study “focuses on Jakobshavn Isbrae, Greenland’s fastest moving glacier and its largest, measuring four miles wide.” It documents the behavior of Jakobshavn Isbrae since the late 1800s by combining “field mapping, remote sensing, satellite imaging and the application of digital techniques in order to glean ‘hidden’ data from historic aerial photographs as many as 60 years after they were taken.” It is a very impressive piece of work. (The photo on the right is from 1944 — click to enlarge.)

For the record, five feet of sea level rise would displace more than 100 million people worldwide — the equivalent of 200 Hurricane Katrinas!
And also for the record, we are looking at a one degree celsius increase, no matter what. That corresponds to 20 feet of sea level rise....


no_slappz said...

sorghum, you wrote,

"For the record, five feet of sea level rise would displace more than 100 million people worldwide — the equivalent of 200 Hurricane Katrinas!"

This statement is absolutely false.

There will be ZERO displacement of humans unless people continue to build homes in places already below sea-level, such as New Orleans.

Here's how it is. You're stating that over the next 90 years ocean levels will rise 5 feet. Or about five-hundreths of a foot per year. Two-thirds of an inch a year.

Either people will slowly move away from the water's edge, or they will build levees or dykes. It's not a problem to build a buffer against increasing water levels.

Meanwhile, virtually every person alive today, and many more born over the coming years will have died before this harmless increase in water levels reaches the family property.

Moreover, the global population is expected to hit 9 billion by 2050. Presumably the population will increase beyond 9 billion by 2100. Assume it stops growing at 10 billion. That's an increase of 50% from today's total. In other words, we're going to have a 100% turnover in population by that time.

People will move away from the danger zones. There will be no "displacements". People are smart enough to live above the high-tide mark.

Sorghum Crow said...

You said, "People will move away from the danger zones."

D'oh! That is what displacement means. Buy a dictionary.